Abstract
Angola has been characterized as one of the most vulnerable regions to climate change. Climate
change compounded by existing poverty, a legacy of conflict and other risk factors, currently
impede development and are expected to become worse as climate change impacts increase. In this
study we analyze the signal of climate change on temperature and rainfall variables for two time
periods, 2020–2040 and 2040–2060. The analysis is based on multi-model ensemble of the Coupled
Model Intercomparison Projects (CMIP5 and CMIP6) and the Coordinated Regional Downscaling
Experiments (CORDEX). Our findings from the observed dataset indicate that the mean annual
temperature over Angola has risen by an average of 1.4 ◦C since 1951, with a warming rate of
approximately 0.2 [0.14–0.25] ◦C per decade. However, the rainfall pattern appears to be primarily influenced by natural variability. Projections of extreme temperature show an increase with the coldest nights projected to become warmer and the hottest days hotter. Rainfall projections suggest a change in the nature of the rainy season with increases in heavy precipitation events in the future.
We investigated how droughts might change in all river basins of Angola, and we found an
increased uncertainty about drought in the future. The changes in climate and increased variability demonstrate the need for adaptation measures that focuses on reducing risks in key sectors with a particular focus on adaptation of cities in Angola given a potential increase in mobility towards urban areas.